Project Overview

CALVIN is a hydro-economic optimization model of California's intertied water system.  It is the only model  representing the extensive statewide system in terms of supplies, demands, and physical and economic adaptability.  It is a lousy model, but remains the best available model for exploring many major changes to this highly integrated and extensive system.  We keep trying to make it better.  (2-page overview document)

Statewide Water System Model Schematics (available in two flavors)

MS-Excel Format (updated 2007)
PDF Format (2 pp. print-out) (2001)

Major Reports

CALFED Report (October 2001) 

    Report details model development, testing, and limitations, with application to California water policy for 2020.  The foundation CALVIN study.

Executive Summary

Main Report

Appendices

Database and Software (52 MB zipped directories and Readme) (Updated 2007)

November 29, 2001 CALVIN Workshop Presentations (ppt)

 

Climate Change Report (February 2003)

    Report examines economics and engineering of California's water system for year 2100, with population growth to 92 million and two extreme climate warming scenarios (HCM and PCM).  Some improvements to the foundation study are made.

Executive Summary

Main Report

Appendices

February 20, 2003 Climate Change Workshop Presentation (ppt) 

        August 25, 2003 presentation to California State Assembly Select Committee

Refereed Journal Papers and Books

Nelson, T., H. Chou, P. Zikalala, J. Lund, R. Hui, and J. Medellin-Azuara, “Economic and Water Supply Effects of Ending Groundwater Overdraft in California’s Central Valley,” San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, Volume 14, Issue 1, 2016.

Nelson, T., R. Hui, J. Lund, and J. Medellin-Azuara “Reservoir Operating Rule Optimization for California’s Sacramento Valley,” San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, Volume 14, Issue 1, 2016.

Null, S.E., J. Medellin-Azuara, A. Escriva, M. Lent, J. Lund, “Optimizing the Dammed: Water Supply Losses and Fish Habitat Gains from Dam Removal in California,” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol 136, pp. 121-131, DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.01.024, 2014.

Sicke, W.S., J.R. Lund, and J. Medellin-Azuara, “Climate Change Adaptations for California’s San Francisco Bay Area Water Supplies,” British Journal of Environmental and Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 292-315, 2013.

Connell-Buck, C.R., J. Medellín-Azuara, J.R. Lund, and K. Madani, “Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. warm-dry climates,” Climatic Change, Vol. 109 (Suppl 1), pp. S133–S149, 2011.

Hanak, E., J. Lund, A. Dinar, B. Gray, R. Howitt, J. Mount, P. Moyle, and B. Thompson, Managing California’s Water:  From Conflict to Reconciliation, Public Policy Institute of California, San Francisco, CA, 350 pp., February 2011.

Tanaka, S.K., C. Buck, K. Madani, J. Medellin-Azuara, J. Lund, E. Hanak, "Economic Costs and Adaptations for Alternative Regulations of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta," San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, Vol. 9, No. 2, 28 pp., July, 2011.

Harou, J.J., J. Medellin-Azuara, T. Zhu, S.K. Tanaka, J.R. Lund, S. Stine, M.A. Olivares, and M.W. Jenkins, “Economic consequences of optimized water management for a prolonged, severe drought in California,” Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2008WR007681, Vol. 46, 2010. (2010 Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award)

Lund, J., E. Hanak, W. Fleenor, W. Bennett, R. Howitt, J. Mount, and P. Moyle, Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, February 2010.

Harou, J.J., M. Pulido-Velazquez, D.E. Rosenberg, J. Medellin-Azuara, J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt, “Hydro-economic Models: Concepts, Design, Applications, and Future Prospects,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 375, Iss. 3-4, 15 September, pp. 627-643, 2009.

Medellín-Azuara, J., L.G. Mendoza-Espinosa, J.R. Lund, J.J. Harou, R. Howitt, “Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico,” Environmental Management, Volume 90, Issue 11, August, pp.3470-3478, 2009.

Harou, J.J. and J.R. Lund, “Ending groundwater overdraft in hydrologic-economic systems,” Hydrogeology Journal, Volume 16, Number 6, September, pp. 1039–1055, 2008.

Medellin-Azuara, J., J.J. Harou, M.A. Olivares, K. Madani-Larijani, J.R. Lund, R.E. Howitt, S.K. Tanaka, M.W. Jenkins, and T. Zhu, “Adaptability and Adaptations of California’s Water Supply System to Dry Climate Warming,” Climatic Change, in press.

Medellín-Azuara, J., J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt, “Water Supply Analysis for Restoring the Colorado River Delta, Mexico,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 133, No. 5, pp. 462-471, September/October 2007.

Lund, J., E. Hanak, W. Fleenor, R. Howitt, J. Mount, and P. Moyle, Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, Public Policy Institute of California, San Francisco, CA, 300 pp., February 2007.

Medellín-Azuara J., Mendoza-Espinosa L. G., Lund, J. R. and Ramírez-Acosta R. J., “The application of economic-engineering optimization for water management in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico,” Water Science & Technology, Vol. 55, No. 1-2, pp. 339-347, 2007.

Medellín-Azuara, J. and J.R. Lund, “Applying Economic-Engineering Systems Analysis to the Colorado River Delta,” Pacific-McGeorge Global Business & Development Law Journal, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 99 – 114, Fall 2006.

Tanaka, S.K., T. Zhu, J.R. Lund, R.E. Howitt, M.W. Jenkins, M.A. Pulido, M. Tauber, R.S. Ritzema and I.C. Ferreira, “Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California,” Climatic Change, Vol. 76, No. 3-4, June 2006. (Cited in the 2007 IPCC report)

Null, S. and J.R. Lund, “Re-Assembling Hetch Hetchy: Water Supply Implications of Removing O'Shaughnessy Dam,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 395 – 408, April, 2006. (Winner of the 2006 best paper award for the Journal of the American Water Resources Association)

Ramírez-Acosta, R.J., Mendoza-Espinosa, L.G., Medellín-Azuara, J. y Lund, J.R. (2006). Economía, población y eficiencia para el abastecimiento futuro de agua potable en Baja California, en Mungaray-Lagarda, A. y Ocegueda-Hernández, J.M. (Ed.), Estudios Económicos sobre Baja California. (p. 199), México, D.F.: Miguel Angel Porrúa.

 Jenkins, M.W., J.R. Lund, R.E. Howitt, A.J. Draper, S.M. Msangi, S.K. Tanaka, R.S. Ritzema, and G.F. Marques, “Optimization of California’s Water System: Results and Insights ,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 130, No. 4, July 2004.

Pulido – Velázquez, M., M.W. Jenkins, and J.R. Lund, “Economic Values for Conjunctive Use and Water Banking in Southern California,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, No. 3, March 2004.

Van Lienden, B. and J.R. Lund, “Spatial Complexity and Reservoir Optimization Results,” Civil and Environmental Engineering Systems, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 1-17, March 2004.

Tanaka, S.K., J.R. Lund, and M.W. Jenkins, “Economic Effects of Increased Exports and Environmental Flows from the San Francisco Bay-Delta,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 1509-1519, December 2003.

Draper, A.J., M.W. Jenkins, K.W. Kirby, J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt “Economic-Engineering Optimization for California Water Management,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 129, No. 3, May/June 2003.

Jenkins, M.W., J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt, “Economic Losses from Urban Water Scarcity in California , ” Journal of the American Water Works Association, February 2003.

Newlin, B.D., M.W. Jenkins, J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt, “ Southern California Water Markets: Potential and Limitations ,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, January, 2002.

Related Theses

Max Fefer, MS "Sensitivity analysis of California water supply: Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptations," (2017)

Ian Buck, MS, "Managing to End Groundwater Overdraft in California’s Central Valley with Climate Change," (2016)

Karandev Singh, MS, Central Valley Refuge Management under Non-stationary Climatic and Management Conditions, (2015)

Mustafa Dogan, MS, “Integrated Water Operations in California: Hydropower, Overdraft, and Climate Change” (2015)

Tim Nelson, MS, “Using the Updated CALVIN Model to develop Optimized Reservoir Operations for the Sacramento Valley” (2014)

Michelle Lent, MS Hydrologic Sciences, “Regional Groundwater Banking and Water Reuse Potential in the San Francisco Bay Area Water Supply System” (2013)

Rachel E. Ragatz, 2013, MS, “California’s water futures:  How water conservation and varying Delta exports affect water supply in the face of climate change”

Prudentia Zikalala, 2013, MS, “Groundwater Management in Central Valley California: Updating Representation of Groundwater in CALVIN Water Management Model and Study of How Groundwater Systems Change in Response to Pumping”

Chou, Heidi, 2012, MS, “Groundwater Overdraft in California’s Central Valley: Updated CALVIN Modeling Using Recent CVHM and C2VSIM Representations”

Bartolomeo, Eleanor, 2011, MS, “Economic Responses to Water Scarcity in Southern California”

Sicke, William, 2011, MS, “Economic Adaptation of San Francisco Bay Area Water Supplies to Climate Change” 

Christina Connell, 2009, “Bring the Heat, but Hope for Rain – Adapting to Climate Warming in California,” MS - Hydrologic Sciences, Effects of climate warming alone versus dry climate warming.

Rachael Hersh-Burdick, 2008, “Effects of Groundwater Management Strategies on the Greater Sacramento Area Water Supply,” MS Engineering.  Examines conjunctive use and operations in the Sacramento metropolitan area.

Stacy K. Tanaka, 2007, “Modeling to Improve Environmental System Management: Klamath River Thermal Refugia and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,” PhD.  Examines economic costs and adaptations for various Delta environmental and export policies.

Josué Medellin-Azuara, 2006, "Economic-Engineering Analysis of Water Management for Restoring the Colorado River Delta," PhD Ecology.  A CALVIN model of Baja California's Mexicali Valley with applications to economical provision of water for restoring the Colorado River Delta in Mexico.

Sarah Null, 2003, “Re-Assembling Hetch Hetchy: Water Supply Implications of Removing O'Shaughnessy Dam,” MA Geography.  Examines water supply impacts, economics, and options for removing O'Shaughnessy Dam.

Manuel Pulido Velazquez, 2002, "Conjunctive Use Opportunities in Southern California ," MS. Examines and compares different conjunctive use options for Southern California.

Randall S. Ritzema, 2002, " Water Management Strategies for the San Joaquin Valley and San Francisco Bay Area: an Engineering-Economic Optimization Study ," A regional study of the San Joaquin and San Francisco Bay Area.

Andrew J. Draper, 2001, "Implicit Stochastic Optimization with Limited Foresight for Reservoir Systems ," PhD. Examines the importance and non-importance of perfect hydrologic foresights for deterministic optimization models and some approaches for overcoming such problems.

Stacy Tanaka, 2001, “Effects of Increased Delta Exports on Sacramento Valley's Economy and Water Management ,” MS. What would happen to Sacramento Valley water users if exports or Delta outflow requirements increased by staggering amounts? 

Mark Leu, 2001, “ Economics-Driven Simulation of the Friant Division of the Central Valley Project, California ,” MS. Not directly related to this project, but a related approach applied to a difficult-to-model system.

Brad D. Newlin, 2000, “Southern California Water Markets: Potential and Limitations ,” MS. Formulation and results for the Southern California region, with fixed inflows from other regions.

Brian Van Lienden, 2000, “ Spatial Complexity and Reservoir Optimization Results ,” MS. Numerical experiments examining the potential problems of aggregating reservoirs, conveyance, and demands, focusing on the Sacramento Valley.

Earlier Reports

August 1999 Overall Report:
August 1999 Report Executive Summary Only (12 pp.)
August 1999 Report (pdf format, entire report in one file - This is BIG!)
August 1999 Report (pdf format, individual chapters)
August 1999 report appendices (somewhat complete)

Presentations

SWAN presentation overview of CALVIN (2009)
ACWA 2002 presentation (~1.2 MB)
Overview of Model and Results - 29 November 2001 (Powerpoint) (~2mb)
Powerpoint Overview, July 2000
Powerpoint Presentation on CALVIN and Groundwater Results, 20 September 1999

Meet the Modelers

Any project of this scope and depth is accomplished, not by the faculty principal investigators, but by the students and former-students who do most of the work (and most of the thinking). This project has been blessed with an incredible inter-disciplinary team of colleagues over a period long enough that several of them have never met (again, the importance of good documentation and databases).

 

Acknowledgements

Great thanks are due to the Advisory Committee originally established by the Resources Agency for the Resources Agency and CALFED projects (ending 2001). They have given freely of their time to attend meetings, provided sage and useful advice, and asked questions when our work and presentations were unclear. This committee and overall coordination with the Resources Agency and CALFED were overseen most capably by Anthony Saracino. Members of the Advisory Committee were: Anthony Saracino, Private Consultant (Chair); Fred Cannon, California Federal Bank; Duane Georgeson, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California; Jerry Gilbert, Private Consultant; Carl Hauge, California Department of Water Resources; Steve Macaulay, State Water Contractors and then California Department of Water Resources; Dennis O'Connor, California Research Bureau; Stu Pyle, Kern County Water Agency; Maureen Stapleton, San Diego County Water Authority; and David Yardas, Environmental Defense Fund.

The original CALVIN project (October 2001 report)  involved an unusual amount of data gathering from many agencies from all over California. Particular thanks go to: Tariq Kadir, Scott Matyac, Ray Hoagland, Armin Munevar, Pal Sandhu, and Saied Batmanghilich (DWR); Tim Blair and Devendra Upadyhyay (MWDSC); Lenore Thomas, David Moore, and Peggy Manza (USBR); Roger Putty and Bill Swanson (Montgomery-Watson); Terry Erlewine (SWC); Judith Garland (EBMUD); Rolf Ohlemutz and Bill Hasencamp (CCWD); Ralph Johonnot (USACE); Chris Barton (YCFCWCD); Ken Weinberg (SDCWA); Melinda Rho (LADWP); Richard McCann (M-Cubed). The US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Bob Carl, David Watkins (now with Michigan Technical University), and Mike Burnham (now a private consultant), with assistance from Paul Jensen of the University of Texas, Austin, provided technical support and technical extensions for the HEC-PRM code. Our apologies to others we have certainly missed.

The Climate Warming and California's Water Future report (February 2003) was sponsored by the California Energy Commission and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) as part of a larger project on climate change in California, with additional leadership and coordination from Yale University and Stratus Consulting.  For this report, we relied heavily on John Landis' work and forecasts of 2100 population and land use and Norm Miller's hydrologic representation of PCM, HCM, and other climate changes for California.  Guido Franco has been of unending help in this work.  This work has continued and is continuing.

We are tremendously thankful to Tom Philp of the Sacramento Bee for noticing and featuring our work in his Pulitzer-prize-winning series of editorials on the restoration of Hetch Hetchy Valley.  He took a little idea from our modeling, and brought it to life in a larger context.  Modelers often gripe that their work has no influence on policy and the public.  It is nice to be part of an exception to this rule.

Recently, CALVIN was used as a modeling center-piece for the 2007 PPIC report, Envisioning Futures for The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and then in the 2008 report and 2010 book Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, to examine potential adaptations for California's water system to major changes in water export policies for the Delta.  The CALVIN approach also has been used to improve and integrate understanding of the water management system in Baja California, Mexico, in cooperation with Dr. Leopoldo Mendoza-Espinoza of UABC - Ensenada.

We have appreciated and been motivated by both the enthusiasm and criticisms we have encountered along the way from diverse parties. We are convinced that our work is better and hopefully more useful for all these contributions.

Official CALVIN Chicken Paella Recipe

 (as adapted from Juan Fullana, Valencia)

 Ingredients:

Olive oil

1.5 kg chicken

3 tomatoes (peeled and sliced)

½ kg soaked white beans (large lima)

½ kg green beans (frozen ok)

spices (saffron, paprika, Rosemary and/or paella spice packet)
Paella pan  (a pretty big one)

 Cooking:

1.  Cook chicken in olive oil (paella pan level, heat not too high – flames a few mm high).
2. Add a little salt per person (about 3 pinches ea. person).
3. When chicken is mostly cooked, add tomatoes.
4. When tomatoes are mostly dissolved, add wite beans, green beans, paprika (about 8 pinches), and water.  Water should go to top of rivets in paella pan.
5. Add Rosemary spice (a little).
6. Boil a long time 30-45 minutes.
7. Add paella spice
8. When water has boiled to rivet bottom, add rice (2 pounds for the big pan) (1 ½ cups per person)
9. Cook 12-13 minutes.
10. Let cool for 5 minutes.

SWAP

Baja CALVIN

Baja CALVIN is a CALVIN model of Baja California, led by Josue Medellin-Azuara.  It has all the features of CALVIN, and provides a great deal of insight and analytical capability for regional water problems and integrated water management in northern Baja California.